A-level經濟學新聞導讀 Vol.4 Commodity Trading

本文選自Financial Times 2023年3月5日的報道，原作者Leslie Hook。

這篇新聞的重心依舊是歐洲去年由俄烏(wu) 戰爭(zheng) 所導致的能源危機問題。和其他類似題材的報道不同的是：本文並沒有一味講分析的中心放在俄羅斯對於(yu) 歐洲實施的天然氣斷供一方麵給整個(ge) 歐洲都帶來了更高的能源成本，而是更加注重浮動的價(jia) 格給期貨市場帶來的賺錢良機，從(cong) 而給到我們(men) 一個(ge) 非常不一樣的視角看待這場危機。

新聞節選

The commodity industry made record gross profits of more than $115bn from trading activities last year, as volatile energy prices resulting from the war in Ukraine drove big swings in the market.

The biggest gainers were the independent trading houses — such as Trafigura, Vitol and Glencore — which had the balance sheets to stay in the market, according to a new study from Oliver Wyman.

“This year was a bit of a perfect storm across all the commodities, from a trading opportunity perspective,” said Ernst Frankl, partner at the consultancy and one of the authors of the report. “Volatility is the lifeblood of what traders need in order to trade.”

The European energy crisis sparked by the war in Ukraine, as well as the imposition of sanctions on certain Russian commodities, drove a big shift in global trade flows, leading to longer voyage times as well as price volatility across commodity classes.

Trading gross profits in the sector — including banks, hedge funds, independent traders and asset-backed traders such as energy majors — soared to $115bn, up 60 per cent from the previous year and nearly three times higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to the study.

Financial players such as hedge funds also enjoyed big gains, earning an estimated $12bn from trading activities in 2022 compared with less than $3bn the year before.

單詞積累

• Trading houses 大宗商品貿易商
• Balance Sheet 資產負債表
• Sanction 製裁
• Voyage 航行，遊曆
• Hedge funds 對衝基金

相關(guan) Alevel知識點複習(xi)

- Commodity Price（Unit2 / Unit4）

Commodity Price的變化是alevel中非常常見的一個(ge) 考點。一般說起大宗商品的價(jia) 格，volatile應該會(hui) 是我們(men) 腦中蹦出的第一個(ge) 單詞。當然，也提醒各位同學，我們(men) 一般默認commodities的價(jia) 格彈性為(wei) inelastic。

其不穩定的價(jia) 格一方麵會(hui) 很大程度上影響到一個(ge) 國家的Balance of Payment，另一方麵也會(hui) 影響Export-led Growth，這兩(liang) 個(ge) 觀點都經常可以在我們(men) 的大作文的寫(xie) 作中被使用到。

那麽(me) 順著這個(ge) 邏輯往下思考，也很容易想到宏觀的兩(liang) 個(ge) unit都有出現的over-dependence on export以及trade liberalization & specification的缺點中都可以說的vulnerable to external shock的觀點。

- Forward Market（Unit1 Chapter 4）

在Unit1介紹金融市場時出現的期貨市場的概念，曾經在考試中也以一分的選擇題的形式出現過。需要記憶的點在於(yu) 其交易的商品往往以commodities和foreign currencies為(wei) 主。