經濟學人文章分析：為什麽說美國墮胎權之爭與性別無關？

在和中國學生溝通過程中，我們(men) 發現高中生對與(yu) 國外的外刊了解甚少，為(wei) 此我們(men) INFOSHARE團隊決(jue) 定定期推送雙語《經濟學人》，帶中國青年去了解世界、學習(xi) 英語，擴大視野！(本文選自《經濟學人》20220507期)

背景介紹：今年5月初，一份由美國最高法院大法官阿利托執筆的多數意見草案泄漏在美國公眾(zhong) 麵前，隨後激起軒然大波，因為(wei) 該草案預示著最高法院大概率將會(hui) 推翻1973年所判定的羅訴韋德案。這意味著，女性墮胎權正麵臨(lin) 被撤銷的邊緣。

‍Church and choice教派與(yu) 選擇

Religion, not gender, is the best predictor of views on abortion

宗教（而非性別）是對墮胎權之爭(zheng) 最好的預示

Shocked by a draft Supreme Court opinion that would allow states to ban abortion, American liberals are hunting for silver linings. Some hope that women enraged by the loss of Roe v Wade will vote en masse for Democrats in November.

美國自由主義(yi) 者對最高法院一份允許各州禁止墮胎的意見草案感到震驚，他們(men) 正在尋找一線希望。一些人希望，因羅伊韋德案被推翻而憤怒的女性會(hui) 在11月投票支持民主黨(dang) 。

That would put Republicans in swing states at risk. However, liberal activists focus solely on the gender gap at their peril: women are almost as likely as men to oppose abortion. The most reliable backers of abortion rights are the 30% of Americans with no religious affiliation.

這將使搖擺州的共和黨(dang) 人陷於(yu) 危險之中。然而，自由主義(yi) 活動家隻關(guan) 注性別差異，這對他們(men) 來說很危險：女性幾乎和男性一樣反對墮胎。墮胎權最可靠的支持者是 30% 沒有宗教信仰的美國人。

Views on abortion have been fairly stable over time. Big majorities favour legal abortion in cases of rape or health risks. Since 2002 the share of participants in the General Social Survey, a large poll, who say abortion, for any reason, should be legal has climbed from 40% to 54%. Compared with the change in support for gay marriage, however, this increase looks modest.

隨著時間的推移，人們(men) 對墮胎的看法一直沒什麽(me) 變化。絕大多數人讚成在強奸或存在健康風險的情況下合法墮胎。自2002年以來，在“綜合社會(hui) 調查”(一項大型民意調查)中，認為(wei) 無論出於(yu) 何種原因墮胎都應該合法的受訪者比例從(cong) 40%攀升至54%。然而，與(yu) 同性婚姻支持率的變化相比，這一增長看起來並不大。

Although state-level polls on abortion are sparse, public opinion in each state can be estimated using demographic and geographic patterns in national surveys. This method shows that just 12 of the 50 states have majorities that want to ban abortion, or allow it only if the mother’s life is at risk.

盡管各州關(guan) 於(yu) 墮胎的民意調查很少，但每個(ge) 州的民意可以通過全國調查中的人口和地理分布模式來估計。這種方法表明，在美國50個(ge) 州中，隻有12個(ge) 州是多數人希望禁止墮胎，或隻在母親(qin) 存在生命危險的情況下允許墮胎。

In contrast, 19 states have laws limiting abortion that would take effect the day Roe is reversed. They include Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, where an estimated 60% of people favour abortion rights.

相比之下，19個(ge) 州有限製墮胎的法律，這些法律將在羅伊案被推翻之日生效。其中包括亞(ya) 利桑那州、密歇根州和威斯康星州，這些州估計有60%的人支持墮胎權。

Voters likely to mourn the loss of Roe can be targeted demographically. The gender gap in views on abortion is modest, at six percentage points. Religion and race, in contrast, account for up to 65 points.

傾(qing) 向於(yu) 為(wei) 羅伊案失敗而悲傷(shang) 的選民可能會(hui) 成為(wei) 人口統計的目標。在對墮胎問題的看法上，性別差異並不大，僅(jin) 為(wei) 6個(ge) 百分點。相比之下，宗教和種族可以占到65%。

In a sample of 13,659 people surveyed by YouGov, a pollster, just 28% of white or older Hispanic evangelicals wanted abortion to be “always” or “mostly” legal. Despite the Catholic and Orthodox churches’ opposition, 53% of whites and 65% of Hispanics in these groups favoured abortion rights.

民意調查機構 YouGov 對13659人進行了抽樣調查，其中隻有28%的白人或年長的西班牙福音派教徒希望墮胎“總是”或“大部分”合法。盡管天主教和東(dong) 正教會(hui) 反對，但這些群體(ti) 中 53% 的白人和 65% 的西班牙裔支持墮胎權。

Among agnostics and people who did not list a religion, the shares were 61% for those who did not attend college, and 79% for people who did. Other strong backers were Jews (76%) and atheists (a hefty92%).

在不可知論者和沒有列出宗教信仰的人中，沒有上過大學的人支持墮胎權的比例為(wei) 61%，上過大學的人的比例是79%。其他強有力的支持者是猶太人（76%）和無神論者（高達92%）。

America’s political coalitions reflect these cleavagesalready. However, whites who are non-evangelical Protestants, or who are not religiously affiliated and lack college degrees, favour abortion rights more than they do Democratic candidates. Their loyalty may now be up for grabs.

美國的政治聯盟已經反映了這些分歧。然而，非福音派新教徒或無宗教信仰且沒上過大學的白人比民主黨(dang) 候選人更支持墮胎權。他們(men) 的立場如今或許有待爭(zheng) 奪。

(紅色標注詞為(wei) 重難點詞匯)

重難點詞匯：

affiliation [əˌfɪliˈeɪʃn] n. 歸屬；加盟

hefty [ˈhefti] adj. 笨重的；相當大的；有力的

cleavage [ˈkliːvɪdʒ] n. 劈開；分裂