中文賽題：管理可持續旅遊業
阿拉斯加州朱諾市，美國，約有 3 萬(wan) 居民，2023 年接待了創紀錄的 160 萬(wan) 郵輪遊客。在最繁忙的日子裏，最多有 7 艘大型郵輪停靠，遊客總數達到約 2 萬(wan) 人[1]。雖然這些遊客為(wei) 城市帶來了約 3.75 億(yi) 美元的可觀收入[2]，但也帶來了與(yu) 過度擁擠相關(guan) 的問題，使得城市開始努力限製遊客數量。諷刺的是，朱諾市的主要景點之一——門登霍爾冰川，正因部分由過度旅遊引起的氣溫升高而持續消退。自 2007 年以來，該冰川已經後退了相當於(yu) 八個(ge) 足球場的距離，這讓許多當地人擔心遊客及相關(guan) 收入可能會(hui) 隨著冰川的消失而消失[3]。幸運的是，朱諾市還有其他景點，如觀鯨和雨林，隻要能夠製定並實施可持續旅遊計劃，該城市仍然可以保持其作為(wei) 旅遊目的地的地位。
最近的報告[4]強調了旅遊業(ye) 的隱性成本，以及為(wei) 保護自然和文化資源並建立可持續旅遊業(ye) 而日益增長的管理這些成本的需求。隱性成本包括對當地基礎設施（如飲用水供應、廢物管理）以及許多位於(yu) 環境敏感地區的旅遊目的地整體(ti) 碳足跡的壓力。由於(yu) 住房供應和成本、擁擠以及吵鬧的遊客，當地人口也麵臨(lin) 壓力。為(wei) 緩解這些負擔，各種措施已被實施，包括提高酒店稅、收取遊客費用、限製每日遊客數量以及限製酒精銷售和消費。通過稅收獲得的額外收入已被用於(yu) 支持保護工作、改善基礎設施以及開發社區項目。雖然許多依賴旅遊業(ye) 的當地人擔心額外的費用可能會(hui) 使遊客望而卻步，並希望看到遊客數量和他們(men) 的業(ye) 務增長，但許多其他當地人變得不滿，要麽(me) 離開，要麽(me) 抗議遊客。
- 為朱諾市建立一個可持續旅遊業的模型。您可能需要考慮遊客數量、總體收入以及為穩定旅遊業而采取的措施。明確說明哪些因素是優化的，哪些因素是約束條件。包括一項關於如何使用任何額外收入的支出計劃，並展示這些支出如何反饋到您的模型中以促進可持續旅遊業。包括敏感性分析，並討論哪些因素最重要。
- 演示您的模型如何適應另一個因過度旅遊受影響的旅遊目的地。地點的選擇如何影響哪些措施最重要？如何利用您的模型推廣遊客較少的景點或地區，以實現更好的平衡？
- 寫一份給朱諾市旅遊委員會的一頁備忘錄，概述您的預測、各種措施的影響，以及您對優化結果的建議。
您的 PDF 解決(jue) 方案總頁數不得超過25頁，包括：
- 一頁摘要頁。
- 目錄。
- 完整解決方案。
- 一封給交通官員的信（一頁）。
- 參考文獻列表。
- AI使用報告（如果使用不計入 25 頁總限製）。
注意：完整的 MCM 提交文件沒有特定的最低頁數要求。您最多可使用 25 頁來包含您的所有解決(jue) 方案內(nei) 容及其他補充信息（例如圖紙、圖表、計算和表格）。允許提交部分解決(jue) 方案。我們(men) 允許謹慎使用 AI 工具（例如 ChatGPT），但完成本問題並不一定需要使用 AI 工具。如果您選擇使用生成式 AI 工具，必須遵循 COMAP 的 AI使用政策。此政策要求您在解決(jue) 方案文件的最後額外添加一份 AI 使用報告，不計入 25 頁的總限製。
全新 MCM/ICM：在線提交流程
本文旨在協助和指導參加 MCM/ICM 的學生和顧問。在文章中，COMAP 提供了有關(guan) 使用新在線提交頁麵的新在線提交流程的信息：
https://forms.comap.org/241335097294056
您需要團隊的控製號、顧問 ID 號和問題選擇才能完成提交。
術語表
可持續旅遊：可持續旅遊是一個(ge) 涵蓋完整旅遊體(ti) 驗的概念，包括對經濟、社會(hui) 和環境問題的關(guan) 注，以及對改善遊客體(ti) 驗和滿足接待社區需求的關(guan) 注。可持續旅遊應關(guan) 注環境保護、社會(hui) 公平、生活質量、文化多樣性以及為(wei) 所有人提供就業(ye) 和繁榮的充滿活力、可行的經濟。
碳足跡：碳足跡（或溫室氣體(ti) 足跡）是一個(ge) 計算值或指數，可用於(yu) 比較某項活動、產(chan) 品、公司或國家向大氣排放的溫室氣體(ti) 總量。碳足跡通常以每比較單位排放量（二氧化碳當量）噸數來報告。
基礎設施：社會(hui) 或企業(ye) 運作所需的基本物理和組織結構與(yu) 設施（例如建築物、道路、電力供應）。
Problem: Managing Sustainable Tourism
Juneau, Alaska, USA with a population of about 30,000 residents, set a record in 2023 with 1.6 million cruise passengers, hosting as many as seven large cruise ships on the busiest days, with upwards of around 20,000 visitors. [1] While these tourists bring in substantial revenue for the city, on the order of $375 million, [2] they also bring issues related to overcrowding that have the city working to limit the number of guests. Ironically, Mendenhall Glacier, one of the premier attractions in Juneau, has been receding, primarily due to warming temperatures caused, in part, by overtourism. The glacier has receded the equivalent of eight football fields since 2007, leading many locals to worry that the tourists and associated revenue will eventually disappear with the glacier. [3] Fortunately, Juneau has other attractions, including whale watching and rain forests, and can maintain their status as a tourist destination, provided they can develop and enact a plan for sustainable tourism.
Recent reports[4] have highlighted the hidden costs of tourism and the growing need to account for and manage these costs to protect natural and cultural resources and build a sustainable tourism industry on which numerous communities around the world depend. These hidden costs include pressure on local infrastructure including drinking water supplies, waste management, and an overall increased carbon footprint in tourist destinations, many of which lie in environmentally sensitive regions. Local populations are also under pressure due to housing supplies and costs, overcrowding, and rowdy tourists. Various measures have been enacted to attempt to ease the burden, including increased hotel taxes, visitor fees, caps on the number of daily visitors, and restrictions on alcohol sales and consumption. Additional revenue from taxes have been used to support conservation, make improvements in infrastructure, and develop community programs. While many locals that depend on tourism are concerned that additional fees might drive tourists away and would rather see the numbers, and their businesses, grow, many other locals are becoming disgruntled and either leaving or protesting against tourists.
- Build a model for a sustainable tourism industry in Juneau, Alaska. You may want to consider factors such as the number of visitors, overall revenue, and measures enacted to stabilize tourism. State clearly which factors you are optimizing, and which factors serve as constraints. Include a plan for expenditures from any additional revenue and show how these expenditures feed back into your model to promote sustainable tourism. Include a sensitivity analysis and discuss which factors are most important.
- Demonstrate how your model could be adapted to another tourist destination impacted by overtourism. How does the choice of location effect which measures will be most important? How might you use your model to promote attractions and/or locations that have fewer tourists to develop a better balance?
- Write a one-page memo to the tourist council of Juneau outlining your predictions, the effects of various measures, and your advice on how to optimize outcomes.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
- One-page Summary Sheet.
- Table of Contents.
- Your complete solution.
- One-page letter to the transportation officials.
- References list.
- AI Use Report (If used does not count toward the 25-page limit.)
Note: There is no specific required minimum page length for a complete MCM submission. You may use up to 25 total pages for all your solution work and any additional information you want to include (for example: drawings, diagrams, calculations, tables). Partial solutions are accepted. We permit the careful use of AI such as ChatGPT, although it is not necessary to create a solution to this problem. If you choose to utilize a generative AI, you must follow the COMAP AI use policy. This will result in an additional AI use report that you must add to the end of your PDF solution file and does not count toward the 25 total page limit for your solution.
NEW MCM/ICM: Online Submission Process
The purpose of this article is to assist and guide students and advisors participating in MCM/ICM. In the article, COMAP, provides information about the new online submission process using the new online submission page:
https://forms.comap.org/241335097294056
You will need your team's control number, advisor id number and your problem choice to complete your submission.
Glossary
Sustainable tourism: Sustainable tourism is a concept that covers the complete tourism experience, including concern for economic, social, and environmental issues as well as attention to improving tourists' experiences and addressing the needs of host communities. Sustainable tourism should embrace concerns for environmental protection, social equity, and the quality of life, cultural diversity, and a dynamic, viable economy delivering jobs and prosperity for all.
Carbon footprint: A carbon footprint (or greenhouse gas footprint) is a calculated value or index that makes it possible to compare the total amount of greenhouse gases that an activity, product, company or country adds to the atmosphere. Carbon footprints are usually reported in tonnes of emissions (CO2-equivalent) per unit of comparison.
Infrastructure: The basic physical and organizational structures and facilities (e.g. buildings, roads, power supplies) needed for the operation of a society or enterprise.
參考資料[1]
https://abc7.com/post/juneau-alaska-cruise-ship-limits-overtourism/15048713/
[2]
https://juneau.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CBJ-Cruise-Impacts-2023-Report-1.22.24.pdf
[3]https://alaskapublic.org/2023/08/07/crammed-with-tourists-juneau-wonders-what-will-happen-as-mendenhall-glacier-recedes/
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