題目：What does economics tell us about the benefits and costs of immigration? What policy should we adopt?
美國總統川普最近表達了許多公民的擔憂，他宣稱:“非法移民傷(shang) 害了美國工人;美國納稅人負擔;還有……每年耗費我們(men) 國家數十億(yi) 美元。英國也表達了類似的情緒，當地工人害怕“波蘭(lan) 管道工”，澳大利亞(ya) 工黨(dang) 領袖比爾·肖頓警告說，工作簽證“削弱了當地的就業(ye) 、工資和工作條件”。乍一看，似乎可以合理地得出這樣的結論:由於(yu) 就業(ye) 機會(hui) 的數量固定，移民對本土工人構成了威脅。然而，這種馬爾薩斯邏輯錯誤地假設移民是當地人的完美替代品，並且勞動力需求是靜態的。
最近的實證研究表明，公司、工人和市場是動態的，能夠適應擴大的勞動力雖然大規模移民可能會(hui) 影響分配，但幾乎沒有證據支持這樣的說法:從(cong) 宏觀層麵上看，移民會(hui) 壓低工資，推高失業(ye) 率，或加重納稅人的負擔事實上，經濟理論和實證研究表明，從(cong) 長遠來看，移民提高了生產(chan) 率、工資和生活水平在全球層麵，研究人員估計，消除勞動力流動的所有障礙將使世界GDP翻一番這一排名的驚人增長表明，國際移民政策值得仔細考慮。
移民是一個(ge) 複雜而情緒化的問題，但對這個(ge) 問題的任何認真研究都必須以事實為(wei) 基礎。幸運的是，現有的經濟學文獻提供了實證證據和分析框架，以理性地審視這一問題，首先是當今世界上大約2.6億(yi) [8]移民和另外7.5億(yi) bb0移民背後的推動力，如果有機會(hui) ，他們(men) 將永久遷移到另一個(ge) 國家。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主約翰·希克斯(John Hicks)在其1932年首次發表的開創性著作中提出，“淨經濟優(you) 勢的差異，主要是工資的差異，是移民的主要原因。1987年，哈佛大學經濟學家George Borjas在Andrew Roy工作的基礎上采用了一個(ge) 選擇模型，以證明潛在移民除了考慮相對收入水平外，還考慮技能的相對回歸和技能的可轉移性
個(ge) 人會(hui) 權衡移民的好處和移民帶來的成本和障礙。例如，東(dong) 道國的政策可能針對特定的個(ge) 人屬性或限製移民的總數。合法移民必須支付護照、簽證和交通費用。尋求非法入境的無證移徙者可能會(hui) 付錢給走私者或招致重大人身風險。一旦進入東(dong) 道國，新移民可能缺乏及時找到合適就業(ye) 所需的當地網絡、證書(shu) 或勞動力市場專(zhuan) 業(ye) 知識。此外，語言障礙、不熟悉的文化規範和社會(hui) 孤立也可能帶來心理上的代價(jia) 。
盡管存在這些挑戰，但移民帶來的潛在生產(chan) 力收益是巨大的。在完全競爭(zheng) 的勞動力市場中，每個(ge) 工人的工資都與(yu) 他創造的價(jia) 值相稱。移民使工人能夠通過遷移到生產(chan) 率更高的地方來尋求更高的工資。這產(chan) 生了更有效的勞動力分配，經濟學家估計，這為(wei) 全球產(chan) 出增加了130萬(wan) 億(yi) 美元即使世界上5%的最貧困人口遷移到發達國家，世界國內(nei) 生產(chan) 總值的增長也將超過完全消除商品、服務和資本流動的所有國際壁壘所帶來的增長然而，盡管有潛在的好處，幾乎每個(ge) 發達國家都對移民實行限製
推動這些限製的一個(ge) 因素是，許多人認為(wei) 移民壓低了當地人的工資然而，在實踐中，由於(yu) 語言、職業(ye) 和技術技能的差異，大多數移民工人並不是本地工人的緊密替代品，因此，他們(men) 不競爭(zheng) 相同的工作事實上，移民往往是生產(chan) 的補充，而不是替代品。在一篇經常被引用的論文中，經濟學家Giovanni Peri和Chad Sparber提出了一個(ge) 動態過程，當地人通過轉換工作來應對移民的湧入，以利用他們(men) 的比較優(you) 勢這種情況在各個(ge) 教育領域都存在;受教育程度較低的原住民對受教育程度較低的移民增加的反應是從(cong) 體(ti) 力密集型工作轉向溝通密集型工作，而當高技能的工程師和科學家進入美國時，受過大學教育的原住民進入管理角色
當然，移民帶來的好處並非平均分配。哈佛大學(Harvard)經濟學家喬(qiao) 治•博爾哈斯(George Borjas)根據教育程度和工作經驗將美國工人分為(wei) 技能單元。Borjas發現，在某些技能細胞中，移民對周收入有統計上顯著的負麵影響，尤其是在受教育程度較低的群體(ti) 中在加拿大、德國和挪威的研究也得到了類似的結果盡管技能細胞技術並沒有捕捉到那些隨著移民而改變技能組合的當地人可能的好處，但它確實提供了經驗證據，表明在短期內(nei) ，受教育程度較低的當地人的周收入會(hui) 受到擁有類似技能的移民的影響。
然而，從(cong) 長遠來看，總體(ti) 工資將隨著生產(chan) 率的提高而提高，研究表明移民和生產(chan) 率提高之間存在正相關(guan) 關(guan) 係。高技能移民能吸引資本投資，促進創新，這兩(liang) 者都能提高勞動生產(chan) 率低技能的移民工人，如園林設計師和托兒(er) 服務提供者，鼓勵更多高技能的當地人，特別是婦女進入勞動力市場作為(wei) 投資者或企業(ye) 家的移民促進了當地的就業(ye) ，並擴大了可獲得的商品和服務的種類由於(yu) 移民對本國現有的產(chan) 品、商業(ye) 規範和法規有一定的了解，他們(men) 能夠通過降低交易成本和提供更多的產(chan) 品種類來促進改善國際貿易的福利
除了對勞動力市場的擔憂之外，發達國家的許多公民還擔心移民會(hui) 成為(wei) 本國納稅人的負擔然而，這方麵的證據也表明，這種擔憂可能是沒有根據的。對移民對財政影響的估計各不相同，但對相關(guan) 文獻的調查顯示了一些明確的模式。首先，移民對財政的影響往往是積極的，而且相對較小例如，經濟合作與(yu) 發展組織(Organization For Economic Cooperation and Development)在2013年采用靜態會(hui) 計方法進行的一項綜合研究發現，在被研究的27個(ge) 成員國中，有20個(ge) 國家的移民對財政的淨貢獻在GDP的0 - 0.5%之間總體(ti) 而言，實證研究表明，高技能移民較多的國家的淨財政正麵影響更大，而人道主義(yi) 移民大量流入的國家的淨財政影響更低，甚至是負麵影響年輕的移民往往會(hui) 產(chan) 生更積極的財政影響，因為(wei) 他們(men) 比年長的移民更健康，參與(yu) 勞動力的時間更長，更成功地融入社會(hui)
移民的好處也延伸到了移民輸出國。根據世界銀行的數據，最直接的收益來自匯款，通常超過對外援助總額，在9個(ge) 國家，匯款占GDP的20%以上此外，盡管著名經濟學家賈格迪什·巴格瓦蒂(Jagdish Bhagwati)和濱田光一(Koichi Hamada)等人的早期研究警告了高技能移民來源國流失的可怕後果，即所謂的人才流失，但數據顯示，如果移民率不超過35%，這些擔憂在很大程度上是沒有根據的人才流失沒有成為(wei) 現實，因為(wei) 除了現金支付和投資外，高技術移民還將專(zhuan) 業(ye) 知識和機構改革返還給輸出國此外，僅(jin) 僅(jin) 是移民的前景就會(hui) 刺激人口去接受更高水平的教育和培訓，其中隻有一小部分人最終會(hui) 離開所有這些因素都提高了輸出國的全要素生產(chan) 和生活水平
盡管對移民來源國和接受國都有好處，但構建公平有效的移民政策是一個(ge) 複雜的規範過程，必須考慮到曆史、政治和社會(hui) 因素。因此，目前全球各地的移民政策差異很大，從(cong) 美國的以家庭為(wei) 基礎的政策，到澳大利亞(ya) 的積分體(ti) 係，再到阿聯酋的客工計劃。以家庭為(wei) 基礎的移民往往在入職時收入較低，但工資增長較快，因為(wei) 他們(men) 有更好的社交網絡，並有更大的動機來獲取當地價(jia) 值的人力資本基於(yu) 積分的移民係統偏愛具有特定特征的移民，如教育、職業(ye) 或語言技能。這些製度導致更多的高技能移民，但這些技能往往不能很好地轉移到東(dong) 道國，而且標準可能不夠靈活，無法跟上不斷變化的商業(ye) 環境的動態需求。客工計劃為(wei) 解決(jue) 勞動力短缺問題提供了更大的靈活性，並可能阻止非法移民，但工人通常在一段時間後返回家鄉(xiang) ，並有有限的機會(hui) 獲得社會(hui) 服務
每一項政策都有相對優(you) 勢，每一種情況都是獨特的，但東(dong) 道國可以采取一些行之有效的措施來提高移民成功的幾率，首先是語言培訓。語言技能是至關(guan) 重要的，以移民為(wei) 重點的語言項目會(hui) 帶來更大的經濟成功和社會(hui) 融合積極的勞動力市場項目，如求職協助和谘詢、工作場所介紹和持續的指導，提高了移民的就業(ye) 率最後，移民往往在勞動力市場靈活和反歧視法有效的國家取得更大的成功
合理的政策還必須考慮到移民對本土工人的負麵影響，尤其是老年人和受教育程度較低的人這是一個(ge) 特別脆弱的群體(ti) ，許多政府運營的旨在對這一群體(ti) 進行再培訓和再就業(ye) 的項目都是無效的然而，利用私營部門力量的項目往往更成功。例如，瑞典工業(ye) 和工會(hui) 聯合成立了就業(ye) 保障委員會(hui) ，德國聯邦就業(ye) 局提供代金券，以支付私人經營的再培訓和就業(ye) 安置服務的費用這些項目更有效，因為(wei) 它們(men) 能更好地識別最需要的技能，並能更快地適應經濟環境的變化
盡管經濟模型預測，不受限製的國際勞動力流動將帶來巨大收益，但在短期內(nei) 這在政治上並不可行。這樣一種漸進的方式，在很大程度上是不可逆轉的，更務實的努力。盡管如此，有一個(ge) 令人信服的理由支持由市場力量而非官僚規則驅動的移民政策。這種方法的一個(ge) 例子是由諾貝爾獎得主加裏·貝克爾(Gary Becker)首先提出的，他呼籲在公開市場上以供需規律決(jue) 定的價(jia) 格每天出售一定數量的簽證經濟學家本傑明·鮑威爾(Benjamin Powell)提出，每年每1000名東(dong) 道國人口出售5個(ge) 永久居留權移民簽證簽證費用可以由移民工人、雇主或第三方(如慈善基金會(hui) )支付。支付可以通過傳(chuan) 統的貸款，甚至收入分享協議來融資
以市場為(wei) 基礎的方法可能在政治上更可行，因為(wei) 它吸引了更有生產(chan) 力和創業(ye) 潛力的移民，而簽證支付有助於(yu) 政府收入可以說，它比現有的政策更公平，因為(wei) 進入這個(ge) 國家不是由家庭關(guan) 係、原籍國、僵化的積分體(ti) 係或其他拜占庭式的監管決(jue) 定的。以市場為(wei) 基礎的政策可以在成功完成一項重大特赦計劃後，通過一項程序，允許目前的無證勞工在公開市場上購買(mai) 簽證。在某些情況下，在公開市場上出售永久和季節性兩(liang) 種簽證，或向遭受政治或宗教迫害的難民提供相對少量的免費簽證，可能會(hui) 更好地滿足一個(ge) 國家的需要。然而，無論細節如何，自由市場依賴於(yu) 法治，因此成功的市場化政策——有些人可能會(hui) 遺憾地說——包括對非法移民及其雇主造成可信且足夠嚴(yan) 厲的後果。
過去幾十年的大量實證分析對移民總體(ti) 上破壞了當地勞動力市場或給政府預算帶來壓力的觀點提出了質疑。相反，數據表明，從(cong) 長遠來看，移民不僅(jin) 提高了移民的生活水平，也提高了當地人的生活水平。進一步減少國際勞動力流動的障礙可能會(hui) 為(wei) 全球GDP增加數萬(wan) 億(yi) 美元盡管移民問題往往是一個(ge) 情緒化和政治爭(zheng) 議性的問題，但潛在移民和未來幾代人應該得到基於(yu) 合理原則和經驗證據的深思熟慮的政策，而不是下意識的反應和政治迎合。
Footnotes
1 Donald Trump, “Remarks by President Trump on the Illegal Immigration Crisis and Border Security,” The White House, Roosevelt Room, Washington DC, November 1, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
2 Daniel Pimlott, “Migration: Why we need Polish plumbers,” Financial Times, February 22, 2006, https://www.ft.com/.
3 William Richard Shorten, “Protecting Local Workers – Restoring Fairness to Australia's Skilled Visa System,” Bill’s Media Releases, April 23, 2019, https://www.billshorten.com.au/.
4 Giovanni Peri, “Do Immigrant Workers Depress the Wages of Native Workers?” IZA World of Labor, (May 2014), 2.
5 Benjamin Powell, The Economics of Immigration: Market-Based Approaches, Social Science, and Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015), 11-70.
6 Giovanni Peri, “Do Immigrant Workers Depress the Wages of Native Workers?” IZA World of Labor, (May 2014), 1.
7 Michael A. Clemens, “Economics and emigration: Trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, no. 3 (2011), Table 1.
8 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, International Migration Report 2017: Highlights, (New York, 2017) Table 1, https://www.un.org.
9 Neli Esipova, Anita Pugliese, and Julie Ray, “More Than 750 Million Worldwide Would Migrate If They Could,” Gallop, (December 10, 2018), https://news.gallup.com/
10 John R. Hicks, The Theory of Wages, 2nd ed. (London: Macmillan, 1963), 76.
11 George J. Borjas, “Self-selection and the Earnings of Immigrants,” American Economic Review 77, no. 4 (1987): 551-52.
12 Michael A. Clemens, “Economics and emigration: Trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, no. 3 (2011), Table 1.
13 Benjamin Powell, The Economics of Immigration: Market-Based Approaches, Social Science, and Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015), 2.
14 Ibid., 11.
15 Giovanni Peri, “Do Immigrant Workers Depress the Wages of Native Workers?” IZA World of Labor, (May 2014), 2.
16 Ibid., 8.
17 Giovanni Peri and Chad Sparber. “Task Specialization, Immigration and Wages.” American Economic Journal 1, no. 3 (2009): 135-69.
18 Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Giovanni Peri, “Rethinking the Effect of Immigration on Wages.” Journal of the European Economic Association 10, no. (2012): 191.
19 George J. Borjas, “The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 4 (2003): 1346-48.
20 Cynthia Bansak, Nicole B. Simpson, and Madeline Zavodny, The Economics of Immigration, (London and New York: Routledge, 2015), 183.
21 Cynthia Bansak, Nicole B. Simpson, and Madeline Zavodny, The Economics of Immigration, (London and New York: Routledge, 2015), 188-204.
22 Patricia Cortes and Jose Tessada, “Low-Skilled Immigration and the Labor Supply of Highly Skilled Women,” American Economic Journal Applied Economics 3, no. 3 (July 2011): 110-11.
23 Jennifer Hunt, “Which Immigrants Are Most Innovative and Entrepreneurial? Distinctions by Entry Visa,” Journal of Labor Economics 29, no. 3 (2011): 419-22.
24 Cynthia Bansak, Nicole B. Simpson, and Madeline Zavodny, The Economics of Immigration, (London and New York: Routledge, 2015), 201-02.
25 Chen Bo and David S. Jacks, “Trade, Variety, and Immigration,” Economics Letters 117, no. 1 (March 2012): 243-46, doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.007.
26 Giovanni Peri, “Do Immigrant Workers Depress the Wages of Native Workers?” IZA World of Labor, (May 2014), 2.
27 Cynthia Bansak, Nicole B. Simpson, and Madeline Zavodny, The Economics of Immigration, (London and New York: Routledge, 2015), 232.
28 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, International Migration Outlook 2013 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2013), doi.org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2013-en.
29 Cynthia Bansak, Nicole B. Simpson, and Madeline Zavodny, The Economics of Immigration, (London and New York: Routledge, 2015), 230-32.
30 Ibid., 230-34.
31 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2006 : Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration, (Washington DC: World Bank, 2006), 85-127.
32 Frederic Docquiera and Hillel Rapoport, “Quantifying the Impact of Highly-Skilled Emigration on Developing Countries,” Centre for Economic Policy Research (May 16, 2009): 77.
33 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2006 : Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration, (Washington DC: World Bank, 2006), 25-72.
34 Michael Beine, Frederic Docquier, and Hillel Rapoport, "Brain drain and human capital formation in developing countries: winners and losers," Economic Journal 118, no. 4 (2008): Table 1.
35 Benjamin Powell, The Economics of Immigration: Market-Based Approaches, Social Science, and Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015), 23-31.
36 Cynthia Bansak, Nicole B. Simpson, and Madeline Zavodny, The Economics of Immigration, (London and New York: Routledge, 2015), 281-324.
37 Ibid., 313-318.
38 Barry Chiswick and Paul Miller, Handbook of the Economics of International Migration, Volume 1A: The Immigrants (Oxford: Elsevier, 2015), 213-70.
39 Ulf Rinne, “The Evaluation of Immigration Policies,” IZA Discussion Paper 6369 (February 2012): 19-20.
40 Cynthia Bansak, Nicole B. Simpson, and Madeline Zavodny, The Economics of Immigration, (London and New York: Routledge, 2015), 167, 325.
41 Ronald D'Amico and Peter Z. Schochet, The Evaluation of the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program: A Synthesis of Major Findings, Prepared for U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration. (Oakland, CA: Social Policy Research Associates and Princeton, NJ: Mathematica Policy Research, December 2012) iv..https://www.mathematica-mpr.com/.
42 Jeffrey Selingo, “The False Promises of Worker Retraining,” The Atlantic, January 8, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/.
43 Thomas K. Grose, “The Worker Retraining Challenge,” U.S. News and World Report, February 6, 2018, https://www.usnews.com/.
44 Julia Lang and Thomas Kruppe, “Labour Market Effects of Retraining for the Unemployed - the Role of Occupations,” German Economic Association Conference Paper, (August 2014): 26. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/100420.
45 Council of Economic Advisers. Addressing America’s Reskilling Challenge. (July 2018): 22. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
46 Benjamin Powell, The Economics of Immigration: Market-Based Approaches, Social Science, and Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015), 146-54.
47 Benjamin Powell, The Economics of Immigration: Market-Based Approaches, Social Science, and Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015), 147.
48 Ibid.,152
49 Robert W. Fairlie, Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurial Activity, 1996-2011 (Kansas City, MO: Kauffman Foundation, 2013), 10-13.
50 Samuel Bufford, “International Rule of Law and the Market Economy - An Outline,” Southwest Journal of Law and Trade in the Americas 12, (2006): 311.
51 Michael A. Clemens, “Economics and emigration: Trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, no. 3 (2011), 87.
Author’s Note
Unless specified otherwise, this paper will use the word “immigrants” to denote individuals who are not born a citizen of the country where they currently reside. This includes voluntary and humanitarian immigrants, who enter the host country with or without proper documentation, and stay on a temporary or permanent basis.
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