題目:What are the most important economic effects - good and bad - of forced redistribution? How should this inform government policy?
從(cong) 一開始,冠狀病毒危機的元敘事就是加劇了現有的不平等:所有人都身處同一場風暴,但絕不是同一艘船。美國勞工統計局估計,在2020年4月,收入分配中處於(yu) 最低20%的員工失業(ye) 的可能性是收入最高20%的員工的四倍,而收入最高20%的員工的平均儲(chu) 蓄傾(qing) 向實際上是由於(yu) 放棄支出而上升的與(yu) 此同時,熊彼特式的創造性破壞力量在市場不確定性下加劇,成為(wei) 當前技術壟斷和平台資本主義(yi) 趨勢的代表,預計到2026年,傑夫·貝佐斯將成為(wei) 世界上第一個(ge) 萬(wan) 億(yi) 富翁然而,這些最近的趨勢將自己置於(yu) 更廣泛的潮流之中:自從(cong) 皮凱蒂提出著名的假設以來,馬克思將資本集中列為(wei) “資本主義(yi) 生產(chan) 的內(nei) 在規律”之一的說法獲得了新的權威因此,判斷政府幹預對防止這種惰性是必要的,本文將尋求建立日益平等的首要原則:強製再分配最重要的經濟效應。在考慮結果主義(yi) 分析在告知政府政策方麵的局限性之前,它將通過收入、繼承和托賓稅的透鏡來權衡這一點與(yu) 潛在的效率下降。
最根本的是,英美現狀構成了一種社會(hui) 低效的資源分配。假設財富邊際效用遞減,可以構造一個(ge) 柏克森-薩繆爾森- swf,由此推導出凸的社會(hui) 無差異曲線;當與(yu) 社會(hui) 效用分配邊界相比較時,這些決(jue) 定了一個(ge) 僅(jin) 顯示中度不平等的最大值伊斯特林悖論證實了這一結論,認為(wei) 幸福和財富之間的相關(guan) 性超過臨(lin) 界值時可以忽略不計。與(yu) 此同時,聯合國(United Nations)的一項分析顯示,1989年至2006年間,美國收入增長的91%來自收入最高的那十分之一人群,這使得不平等通過“涓滴效應”絕對惠及所有人的傳(chuan) 統假設,令人遺憾地失去了說服力。
此外,威爾金森和皮克特認為(wei) ,不平等會(hui) 產(chan) 生嚴(yan) 重的心理成本(見圖1)在他們(men) 2018年出版的《內(nei) 心世界》(The Inner Level)一書(shu) 中,“地位焦慮”——即害怕被物質社會(hui) 視為(wei) 不成功的人——被假定為(wei) 這一現象的一種基於(yu) 進化的因果機製:與(yu) 其他靈長類動物一樣,人類的皮質醇水平會(hui) 隨著社會(hui) 統治等級的不穩定性而升高考慮到福柯定義(yi) 的新自由主義(yi) 固有的不穩定性(“競爭(zheng) 延伸到生活的方方麵麵”),[10]以及最近個(ge) 人收入在轉會(hui) 前和轉會(hui) 後的差異隨著時間的推移而爆發,威爾金森和皮克特的主張獲得了更大的信任。
關(guan) 於(yu) 不平等的文獻經常在機會(hui) 平等和結果平等之間進行劃分;斯蒂格利茨雖然小心翼翼地不否認某些收入差異是靜態和動態效率的需要,但是,他認為(wei) 這種區別是錯誤的二分法自蘇格蘭(lan) 啟蒙運動(Scottish Enlightenment)以來,經濟學家已經認識到,不平等具有激勵投資、創新和冒險的功能;然而,低收入家庭的兒(er) 童往往得不到教育、保健和經濟機會(hui) ,無法對這些激勵措施作出反應。拋開公平不談,這些障礙意味著人力資本不發達的總機會(hui) 成本,使工人的職能靈活性和職業(ye) 流動性較低。德勤(Deloitte)估計,在蓬勃發展的數字時代,一項學習(xi) 技能的半衰期隻有4.5年——而上一代人的半衰期是26年——鑒於(yu) 此,這種不行動肯定令人不安
此外,與(yu) 卡爾多所說的在效率與(yu) 平等之間進行權衡的觀點相反,高基尼係數會(hui) 破壞增長的觀點現在正成為(wei) 學術上的正統觀點對此的一種解釋借鑒了凱恩斯的消費理論:由於(yu) 低收入者有更高的邊際消費傾(qing) 向,他們(men) 的可自由支配收入較低,導致高的未完全需求。另一個(ge) 理由表明,貿易保護主義(yi) 的流行呼聲可以歸因於(yu) 金融脆弱性:英美工人比歐洲大陸工人更抵製提高效率的重組,部分原因是他們(men) 失去工作的風險要大得多。一個(ge) 健全的社會(hui) 安全網也可能作為(wei) 一種擔保,將企業(ye) 家的風險厭惡情緒降至最低;這與(yu) 英國破產(chan) 法93節和美國破產(chan) 法第二章的邏輯是相似的然而,即使有人拒絕上述所有的分析,事實上,自由主義(yi) 殘留的美國在1990-2008年的年增長率為(wei) 1.8%,而社會(hui) 民主的挪威為(wei) 2.6%,這表明平等至少不會(hui) 對效率不利
最後,人們(men) 越來越懷疑,威爾金森和皮克特所描述的社會(hui) 心理不穩定在金融領域也存在。拉詹提出了不平等與(yu) 信貸危機之間的關(guan) 係,他指出,“在曆史上,寬鬆的信貸一直被政府用作一種緩和手段”,以維持總需求,並在收入停滯的情況下緩解消費不平等據推測,這種效應導致了2008年明斯基時刻的過度杠杆化,這是災難性的。顯然,由於(yu) 危機代價(jia) 高昂,作為(wei) 債(zhai) 務預防手段的再分配,比決(jue) 議等事後工具更可取。
因此,我們(men) 可以合理地得出這樣的結論:在其他條件不變的情況下,更平等的收入分配是一個(ge) 理想的目標。然而,毫無疑問,cp假設過於(yu) 簡單化了——具體(ti) 情況如何取決(jue) 於(yu) 所部署的政策工具。考慮三個(ge) 例子:
一個(ge) 標準的擔憂是,累進所得稅會(hui) 產(chan) 生效率成本,從(cong) 而抵消任何分配收益首先,稅收抑製了勞動積極性,因為(wei) 這意味著較低的淨工資,因此休閑的機會(hui) 成本較低。“頂尖人才外流”和更高的流動率可能會(hui) 隨之而來,根據效率工資理論,代理人會(hui) 減少分配給他們(men) 工作的努力。逃稅/避稅是一個(ge) 進一步的因素,還有薪酬談判,即假定高收入者有能力通過談判提高工資,當稅率較低時,這種激勵作用最大。因此,有人認為(wei) ,最高稅率的削減會(hui) 刺激尋租行為(wei) ,盡管不一定會(hui) 刺激經濟增長。
在確定一個(ge) 比率時,這些影響超過這個(ge) 比率就等於(yu) 淨損失,應稅收入的彈性是一個(ge) 有用的參數。最終,盡管對其規模沒有達成共識(Gruber和Saez計算出當前的數值為(wei) 0.4,但估計範圍在0到1之間),但確切的數字肯定將取決(jue) 於(yu) 消除法律漏洞和貧困陷阱。後者在英國是一個(ge) 常見的問題,2017年環球信貸(Universal Credit)的提案讓家庭的平均年收入減少了1144英鎊,而第二份收入的人每周要多做5個(ge) 小時的最低工資工作政府必須小心避免製造這樣的“陷阱”。
同時,最優(you) 轉移規模應根據道爾頓最大社會(hui) 優(you) 勢原則確定,支出的邊際社會(hui) 效益等於(yu) 邊際社會(hui) 成本這種計算應該包括通脹、財政可持續性和機會(hui) 成本:特別是,通過解決(jue) 不平等的驅動因素,資本支出是否可能成為(wei) 一個(ge) 更有效的長期衡量指標對於(yu) 轉移會(hui) 鼓勵搭便車和“依賴文化”的擔憂應該予以考慮,但不應過分強調:由於(yu) 一再經受不住實證審查,他們(men) 的陳述往往類似於(yu) 韋伯分層的道德修辭
然而,所得稅忽略了這樣一個(ge) 事實:收入基尼係數平均隻有財富基尼係數的一半;遺產(chan) 稅似乎是糾正這種不平衡的一種直觀方法然而,令人驚訝的是,沃爾夫質疑這種直覺是否被誤導了,他假設遺贈實際上減少了財富的不平等,因為(wei) 與(yu) 富裕家庭相比,轉移在貧困家庭當前持有的資產(chan) 中所占比例通常更大但最終,長期的動態會(hui) 破壞這一建議:較貧窮的代理人通常會(hui) 花掉他們(men) 的收益,而富人則有能力把它們(men) 存起來。也有人認為(wei) ,遺產(chan) 稅增加了資本稀缺,從(cong) 而產(chan) 生了資本回報,從(cong) 而在總體(ti) 上加劇了不平等實證分析為(wei) 這一主張提供了一些基礎,盡管它仍然不太可能在規模上足以使再分配總體(ti) 上產(chan) 生反效果
與(yu) 所得稅一樣,對彈性的考慮也適用於(yu) 繼承,還有一種可能性是,高利率可能會(hui) 刺激肆意消耗儲(chu) 蓄。盡管如此,當考慮到倫(lun) 理上的觀點,即繼承的財富目前是任意分配的(根據“出生抽簽”),征收更高稅的理由似乎很充分:今天,隻有5%的英國遺產(chan) 需要繳納遺產(chan) 稅
最後,托賓稅是一種針對金融交易的小額從(cong) 價(jia) 稅,其負擔主要落在最富裕的資本所有者身上雖然征稅將普遍增加交易成本,但貨幣投機實際上是唯一一種發生頻率足夠高的交易,其收費如此之低,足以納入交易員的成本效益分析;因此,歐洲議會(hui) (European Parliament)估計,0.1%的增長率將增加500億(yi) 美元的年收入,同時對實體(ti) 經濟幾乎不會(hui) 產(chan) 生扭曲效應
但是,如果單方麵實行嚴(yan) 格的控製,可能會(hui) 使一個(ge) 國家失去競爭(zheng) 力;這對英國尤其不利,因為(wei) 英國金融服務占經濟總產(chan) 出的6.9%對於(yu) “免費搭上選擇性退出管轄權”這一集體(ti) 行動問題,一個(ge) 解決(jue) 辦法可能是,要求將實施稅收作為(wei) 進入IMF等超國家組織的條件;然而,政府是否在政治上準備如此戲劇性地放棄財政主權,則是另一回事
此外,托賓稅的批評者稱,它可能會(hui) 降低市場流動性,導致投資下降和資本成本上升。他們(men) 認為(wei) ,金融交易通常是為(wei) 了對衝(chong) 風險而進行的,如果阻止這種做法,政策可能會(hui) 破壞穩定。然而,這些負麵影響最終會(hui) 被減緩的資本流動減少匯率波動這一事實所抵消,從(cong) 而使國家網絡不那麽(me) 容易受到外生衝(chong) 擊。眾(zhong) 所周知,由非理性繁榮導致的對匯率的投機壓力,會(hui) 導致利率高於(yu) 國內(nei) 貨幣狀況所保證的水平,損害增長和就業(ye) ;20世紀90年代亞(ya) 洲、拉丁美洲和俄羅斯的危機,在很大程度上都被歸因於(yu) 破壞穩定的資本流動因此,如果多邊實施,托賓稅可能是一種收集資金並在國內(nei) 和國際上重新分配的有效方式。
盡管如此,政治經濟學對結果主義(yi) 分析對政策處方的影響提出了一個(ge) 重大的限製。運用唐斯的中間選民理論,梅爾澤-理查德模型表明,假設收入分配向右傾(qing) 斜,人口完全合理,政治-經濟均衡應該建立在支持再分配政策的基礎上Larcinese指出,這樣的抽象概念很少得到實證觀察的支持,然而,因為(wei) 選民投票率與(yu) 收入呈正相關(guan) ,這意味著關(guan) 鍵選民實際上比收入分配中的中位數更富有此外,關(guan) 於(yu) 完全理性的“經濟人”(homo economicus)的假設顯然過於(yu) 簡單:例如,有研究顯示,選民低估了自己社會(hui) 中不平等的程度,即便如此,他們(men) 也會(hui) 更喜歡一個(ge) 更平等的社會(hui) ,而不是他們(men) 認為(wei) 自己生活在其中的社會(hui) ,這暴露了廣泛的信息不對稱選民在評估政策時也會(hui) 考慮除私人金錢利益之外的其他因素,正如對諾齊克和羅爾斯等人物持久的公眾(zhong) 興(xing) 趣所表明的那樣。
我們(men) 還應注意到,鑒於(yu) 上述衝(chong) 擊和長期趨勢,目前公眾(zhong) 對資金轉移的高度依賴很可能會(hui) 持續到中期。除了全球封鎖帶來的徹底重組之外,一波期待已久的自動化浪潮預計將使很大一部分中產(chan) 階級因技術失業(ye) 而失業(ye) ;莫拉維克的悖論指出,與(yu) 要求靈活機動的任務相比,高級推理所需的計算能力更少,這意味著像會(hui) 計這樣的“高技能”工作特別容易受到影響因此,人們(men) 可以預期對再分配的自利公眾(zhong) 支持會(hui) 增加。
因此,歸根結底,各國政府必須小心謹慎,避免引發設計不當的政策可能造成的不良影響;其中最主要的是貧困陷阱、國際競爭(zheng) 力下降和利用漏洞。此外,不應將再分配視為(wei) 解決(jue) 社會(hui) 經濟弊病的萬(wan) 靈藥:例如,再分配在很大程度上未觸及具體(ti) 的文化資本,而要解決(jue) 這一問題,就需要更廣泛的供給側(ce) 幹預方案然而,大量證據表明,比起維持現狀,公民一般更喜歡更大程度的再分配,這些偏好在選舉(ju) 數據中沒有得到充分體(ti) 現,而且至少在可預見的未來,越來越多的人將依賴於(yu) 國家的援助。再考慮到適度平等帶來的更大增長、總效用和金融穩定帶來的好處,我們(men) 可以提出一個(ge) 強有力的理由,即再分配確實是平衡馬克思學說中不斷增加的苦難的必要工具
作者注解
雖然國際再分配(援助和賠償(chang) ,例如)的問題無疑值得討論,但為(wei) 了簡短起見,本文重點討論單一管轄範圍內(nei) 的再分配。出於(yu) 同樣的原因,它討論的是公民之間的再分配,而不是企業(ye) 之間的再分配;例如,補貼和公司稅的作用就不在其職權範圍之內(nei) 。我假設這是一個(ge) 相對高收入的國家,並從(cong) 英國和美國獲得了大部分實證數據。
Footnotes
1 Larry Elliott, ‘Unemployment due to Covid-19 is surely worth more than a footnote’, The Guardian, 10 May 2020.
2 Nick Srnicek, Platform Capitalism (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2016).
3 Leaders, ‘Big tech is thriving in the midst of the recession’, The Economist, 2 May 2020. Tech monopolies Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook now comprise more than one-fifth of the entire value of the S&P 500 stock market index. 4 Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2014). Here, r denotes the rate of return on capital (i.e. profits, dividends, rents, incomes and interest), whilst g denotes the overall rate of economic growth. 5 Karl Marx, Capital: a Critique of Political Economy v.1 (London: Penguin Classics, 1990).
6 Nicola Acocella, The Foundations of Economic Policy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
7 Jan Vandermoortele, ‘Inequality and Gresham’s Law: the bad drives out the good’, Unpublished thinkpiece for the UN in China, March 2013. <https://wess.un.org/archive/2015/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/dps_paper_vandemoortele.pdf>
8 Table: Karen Rowlingson, Does Income Inequality Cause Health and Social Problems? (York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2011). <https://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files/inequality-income-social-problems-full.pdf> In doing so, they address the objection that absolute as opposed to relative poverty is the only factor to warrant consideration.
9 Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, The Inner Level (London: Penguin Books, 2018).
10 Michel Foucault, The Birth of Biopolitics: Lectures at the College de France, 1978-1979 (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008).
11 Jacob Hacker, The Great Risk Shift (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008). Hacker notes that locus of control scores- a powerful predictor for anxiety- have become substantially more external in recent years. He credits this to the lack of a robust social safety net.
12 Joseph Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality (London: Penguin, 2013). In his book, he formalises the negative correlation between income inequality and the intergenerational mobility of wealth as ‘The Great Gatsby Curve’, which manifests tangibly as the fact that an American child whose parents fall within in the bottom decile of the income distribution has a 20% chance of reaching college, whilst for those from the top decile that figure is closer to 90%.
13 Indranil Roy, Future of Work: an Introduction, January 2019
<https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/it/Documents/human-capital/Future%20of%20Work_Deloitte.pdf> [Last accessed: 9 June 2020].
14 Nicholas Kaldor, ‘Alternative Theories of Distribution’, The Review of Economic Studies, 23, no. 2 (1956), pp. 83-100.
15 Rema Hana, Dispelling the Myth of Welfare Dependency, 9 August 2019 <https://epod.cid.harvard.edu/article/dispelling- myth-welfare-dependency> [Last accessed: 9 June 2020]
16 Ha-Joon Chang, 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism (London: Penguin, 2011). This conclusion holds, irrespective of confounding variables.
17 Raghuram Rajan, Fault Lines (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011).
18 Progressive income taxation is taken to be a tax scheme applied to a monetary (income) base, whereby the marginal tax rate rises in proportion with said base.
19 Martin Feldstein, ‘The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: a Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act’, The Journal of Political Economy, 103, no. 3 (1996), pp. 551-572.
20 Jon Gruber and Emmanuel Saez, ‘The elasticity of taxable income: evidence and implications’, Journal of Public Economics, 84, no. 1 (2002), pp. 1-32.
21 Nigel Morris, ‘Frank Field: Universal credit is so badly designed it traps families in poverty’, iNews, 15 September 2017.
22 Hugh Dalton, Principles of Public Finance (Oxford: Routledge, 1922).
23 John Hills, Good Times, Bad Times (Bristol: Bristol University Press, 2017).
Notably, ‘fiscal sustainability’ need not equate to ‘balancing the budget’, particularly today, with long-term interest rates the lowest in recorded history. Part of the confusion over deficits comes from treating welfare expenditure as consumption as opposed to investment which brings returns through the multiplier effect, productivity improvements and the avoidance of further costs to the state (healthcare or rent and council tax arrears, for example). The now-discredited Reinhardt and Rogoff study is another contributing factor.
24Tracy Shildrick, Robert MacDonald, Andy Furlong, Johann Roden and Robert Crow, Are Cultures of Worklessness Passed Down Through Generations? (London: Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2012). In this major study, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation failed to identify a single family in the UK where worklessness had persisted for three or more generations and found that those who were long-term unemployed remained committed to the value of work.
25 Era Dabla-Norris, Kalpana Kochhar, Frantisek Ricka, Nujin Suphaphiphat, and Evridiki Tsounta, Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality: A Global Perspective (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2015).
26 Edward Wolff, ‘Inheritances and Wealth Inequality, 1989-1998’, American Economic Review, 92, no. 2 (2002), pp. 260-264.
27 Joseph Stiglitz, ‘Notes on Estate Taxes, Redistribution and the Concept of Balanced Growth Path Incidence’, Journal of Political Economy, 86, no. 2 (1978), pp. 137-150.
28 Mikael Elinder, Oscar Erixson and Daniel Waldenstrom, Inheritance and Wealth Inequality: Evidence from Population Registers (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2016).
29 The Editorial Board, ‘Why the UK’s inheritance tax needs to be reformed’, The Financial Times, 12 July 2019.
30 Tobin taxation can therefore be considered a progressive policy and falls within the category of ‘forced redistribution’. 31 Ben Patterson and Mickal Galliano, The Feasibility of an International “Tobin Tax” (Luxembourg: European Parliament, 1999).
32 Chris Rhodes, Financial services: contribution to the UK economy (London: House of Commons Library, 2019).
33 Pierre Chaigneau, The Tobin Tax, 10 July 2011 <https://www.next-finance.net/The-Tobin-tax> [Last accessed: 10 June 2020].
34 Ibid.
35 Allan Meltzer and Scott Richard, ‘A Rational Theory of the Size of Government’, Journal of Political Economy, 89, no.1 (1981), pp. 914-1927.
36 Valentino Larcinese, ‘Voting over Redistribution and the Size of the Welfare State: The Role of Turnout’, Political Studies, 55, no. 3 (2007), pp. 568-585.
37 Michael Norton, David Neal, Cassandra Govan, Dan Ariley and Elise Holland, ‘The Not-So-Common-Wealth of Australia: Evidence for a Cross-Cultural Desire for a More Equal Distribution of Wealth’, Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, 14, no. 1 (2014), pp. 339-351.
38 World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs Report (Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2018).
39 Hans Moravec, Mind Children (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1988).
40 Pierre Bourdieu and Jean-Claude Passeron, ‘Cultural Reproduction and Social Reproduction’, in Jerome Karabel and Albert Halsey (eds), Power and Ideology in Education (New York: Oxford University Press, 1977), pp. 487-511. Suggestions range from Johnsonite infrastructure investment to Corbynite company restructuring.
41 In Capital vol. 1 Marx writes that alongside generating intolerable levels of ‘misery, oppression, slavery, degradation and oppression’, the concentration of wealth poses ‘a fetter upon the laws of production’. For the reasons outlined in the first section of this essay, we might consider this to be among his most prescient claims.
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