文章目錄[隱藏]

中文賽題 F: 綠色 GDP

背景

國內(nei) 生產(chan) 總值 (Gross Domestic Product, GDP) 可能是最為(wei) 人熟知和常用的國家經濟健康度量標準之一。它經常被用於(yu) 確定一個(ge) 國家的購買(mai) 力和貸款能力，促使國家提出促進 GDP 增長的政策和項目。GDP “衡量在一定時間內(nei) 一個(ge) 國家生產(chan) 的最終產(chan) 品和服務的貨幣價(jia) 值; 它計算的是一個(ge) 國家領土內(nei) 所有生產(chan) 的總量。”[1] 這種計算如此重要且常被引用的方法，偏向於(yu) 今天的生產(chan) 而不考慮明天保護資源的問題。例如，一個(ge) 有豐(feng) 富森林的國家可以通過伐木並生產(chan) 大量木製家具來提高當前的 GDP，而不受到任何懲罰，盡管這樣做會(hui) 導致生物多樣性的喪(sang) 失和其他負麵環境影響。同樣，一個(ge) 國家可以通過現在捕撈更多的魚來提高其 GDP，而不會(hui) 受到對魚類資源造成不可逆轉傷(shang) 害的處罰。

由於(yu) GDP 未能為(wei) 自然資源做出貢獻，它可能不是一個(ge) 國家真正的經濟健康度量標準。如果各國改變評估和比較其經濟的方式，國家政府可能會(hui) 改變其行為(wei) ，促進對地球環境健康更好的政策和項目。“綠色” GDP (Green GDP, GGDP)，其中“綠色”指包含環境和可持續性觀點和因素，可能比當前傳(chuan) 統 GDP 更好地衡量一個(ge) 國家的經濟健康狀況嗎？

多邊變革極具挑戰性。說服各國同意將這種新的 GGDP 作為(wei) 國家經濟健康的主要衡量標準，可能非常困難。然而，如果這種轉變發起了一個(ge) 全球性的國家氣候行動運動，這些運動取得了對應於(yu) 緩解氣候危機的重大進展，那麽(me) 這個(ge) 努力就值得進行。

要求

你的任務是考慮世界承認 GGDP 作為(wei) 國家經濟健康的主要衡量標準。我們(men) 應該期待哪些變化？這些變化的環境影響是什麽(me) ？具體(ti) 而言，你的團隊應該：

有許多提議的方法可以計算已經開發出來的GGDP。選擇一個你的團隊認為如果它取代GDP成為經濟健康的主要衡量標準，它可能對氣候減緩產生可衡量的影響。
製作一個簡單的模型，該模型易於捍衛，以估計如果采用您選擇的GGDP作為一個國家經濟健康的主要衡量標準，對氣候減緩的全球影響的預期。由您決定如何衡量全球影響。
用GGDP替代GDP可能會遭遇抵抗。根據您的模型，確定是否值得在全球範圍內進行轉換，比較氣候減緩影響的潛在上行和替換現狀所需努力的潛在下行。解釋您的推理並用您以前的全球影響分析支持您的答案。
選擇一個國家，並提供更深入的分析，說明這種轉變可能會對他們產生什麽影響。例如，你預期他們在使用或節約自然資源方麵會出現什麽具體變化（在當前的GDP下和在采用GGDP之後）。考慮到該國的當前經濟狀況和支持未來幾代人的能力，這些變化是否對這個特定的國家有益。請確保你的分析明確地與GDP和GGDP計算方式之間的變化聯係起來。
基於你的特定於國家的分析，給該國的領導寫一份一頁的非技術報告，說明是否支持轉換為GGDP或拒絕轉換並將GDP保持為國家經濟健康的主要衡量標準。

你的PDF解決(jue) 方案總頁數不超過25頁，應包括：

一頁摘要，清楚地描述你解決問題的方法和你在問題背景下分析的最重要結論。
目錄。
一頁非技術報告。
你的完整解決方案。
參考文獻列表。

注：ICM競賽有25頁限製。你的所有提交方麵都計入25頁限製（摘要、目錄、非技術報告、解決(jue) 方案、參考文獻列表和任何附錄）。你必須引用你報告中使用的思想、圖片和其他材料的來源。

術語表

多邊的：有幾個(ge) 組織、支持者或參與(yu) 者的，尤其是幾個(ge) 不同的國家的。

Problem F: Green GDP

Background

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is arguably one of the most well-known and commonly used measures of the health of a nation's economy. It is often used in determining the purchasing power and access to loans for a country, providing motivation for nations to propose policies and projects that boost their GDPs. GDP “measures the monetary value of final goods and services produced in a country in a given time period; it counts all of the output generated within the borders of a country.”[1] This approach to calculating such an important and often quoted measure favors production today without any consideration about conserving resources for tomorrow. For example, a nation with rich forests could boost its current GDP by clear-cutting the trees and producing large amounts of wooden furniture. This nation could do so without penalty despite the loss of biodiversity and other negative environmental consequences. Similarly, a nation can boost its GDP by harvesting more fish now, without penalty for potentially irreversible harm to the fish stocks.

Because GDP fails to give credit for natural resources, perhaps it is not a good measure of the true economic health of a nation. If nations change the ways they evaluate and compare their economies, national governments may change their behaviors, promoting policies and projects that are better for the environmental health of the planet. Could a “Green” GDP (GGDP), where “Green” refers to the inclusion of environmental and sustainability perspectives and factors, be a better measure than the current conventional GDP?

Multilateral changes are extremely challenging. Convincing nations to agree to this new GGDP over the conventional GDP as the primary measure of economic health would likely be very difficult. However, if making the shift initiates a global movement of national climate efforts that makes significant progress towards climate crisis mitigation, then perhaps it is worth the fight.

Requirement

Your task is to consider the world recognizing GGDP as the primary measure of the health of a nation's economy. What changes should we expect? What would the environmental impact of those changes be? Specifically, your team should:

There are many proposed ways to calculate GGDP that have already been developed. Select one that your team believes could have a measurable impact on climate mitigation if it replaced GDP as the primary measure of economic health.
Make a simple model that is easily defendable to estimate the expected global impact on climate mitigation if your selected GGDP is adopted as the primary measure of the economic health of a nation. It is up to you to decide how to measure global impact.
Replacing GDP with GGDP could be met with resistance. Determine if your model indicates that the switch is worthwhile at a global scale, comparing both the potential upside of climate mitigation impact and the potential downside of the effort required to replace the status quo. Explain your reasoning and support your answer with your previous global impact analysis.
Select a country and provide a more in-depth analysis of how this shift might impact them. For example, what specific changes would you expect in how they use or save their natural resources between now (under the current GDP) and after the GGDP is adopted? Would those changes be beneficial to this specific country, considering both their current economic status and their ability to support future generations? Be sure that your analysis is explicitly tied to the changes between how GDP and GGDP are calculated.
Based on your country-specific analysis, write a one-page non-technical report to the leaders of that country on whether to support a switch to GGDP or to reject a switch and maintain GDP as the primary measure of national economic health.

Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:

One-page Summary Sheet that clearly describes your approach to the problem and your most important conclusions from your analysis in the context of the problem.
Table of Contents.
One-page non-technical report.
Your complete solution.
Reference List.

Note: The ICM Contest has a 25-page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25- page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Non-technical Report, Solution, Reference List, and any Appendices). You must cite the sources for your ideas, images, and any other materials used in your report.