中文賽題：房產保險的可持續性

極端天氣事件正成為(wei) 房產(chan) 所有者和保險公司的危機。世界在近年來已經經曆了“超過1萬(wan) 億(yi) 美元的損失，由1000多個(ge) 極端天氣事件造成。”[1] 保險行業(ye) 在2022年自然災害的索賠量與(yu) 30年平均值相比增加了“115%。”[1] 預計情況將變得更糟，因為(wei) 由洪水、颶風、氣旋、幹旱和野火等引起的嚴(yan) 重天氣相關(guan) 事件的損失可能會(hui) 增加。保險覆蓋的保費正在迅速上漲，氣候變化推動的預計增幅到2040年將達到30-60%。[1]

房產(chan) 保險不僅(jin) 變得越來越貴，而且越來越難找到，因為(wei) 保險公司改變了他們(men) 願意承保政策的方式和地點。推動房產(chan) 保險保費成本的天氣相關(guan) 事件在世界不同地區看起來不同。此外，保險保護缺口全球平均為(wei) 57%，且在增加。[2] 這突出了行業(ye) 的困境 - 保險公司盈利能力的新危機以及房產(chan) 所有者承擔能力的危機。

COMAP的災害保險模型師（ICM）對房產(chan) 保險行業(ye) 的可持續性感興(xing) 趣。隨著氣候變化增加了更嚴(yan) 重的天氣和自然災害的可能性，ICM希望確定如何最好地定位房產(chan) 保險，以便係統有韌性來覆蓋未來索賠的成本，同時也確保保險公司的長期健康。如果保險公司在太多情況下不願承保政策，他們(men) 將因客戶太少而破產(chan) 。相反，如果他們(men) 承保的政策風險太大，他們(men) 可能會(hui) 支付太多的索賠。保險公司應在什麽(me) 條件下承保政策？他們(men) 什麽(me) 時候應該選擇冒這個(ge) 風險？房產(chan) 所有者能做些什麽(me) 來影響這個(ge) 決(jue) 定？開發一個(ge) 模型，用於(yu) 保險公司決(jue) 定是否應在極端天氣事件增多的地區承保政策。使用兩(liang) 個(ge) 不同大陸上經曆極端天氣事件的地區演示你的模型。

當我們(men) 展望未來，社區和房地產(chan) 開發商需要問自己如何以及在哪裏建造和發展。隨著保險市場的變化，未來的房地產(chan) 決(jue) 策必須做出，以確保房產(chan) 更加強韌並有意地建造，包括為(wei) 日益增長的社區和人口提供適當服務的可行性。你的保險模型如何適應評估在特定地點是否、如何以及是否建造？

可能有一些社區，你的保險模型建議不承保當前或未來的房產(chan) 保險政策。這可能導致社區領導麵臨(lin) 關(guan) 於(yu) 具有文化或社區意義(yi) 的房產(chan) 的艱難決(jue) 策。例如，北卡羅來納州外海岸的開普哈特拉斯燈塔被移動，以保護這座曆史悠久的燈塔以及圍繞它的當地旅遊產(chan) 業(ye) 。[3] 作為(wei) 一個(ge) 社區領導者，你如何識別社區中應該因其文化、曆史、經濟或社區意義(yi) 而被保留和保護的建築？開發一個(ge) 保存模型，供社區領導使用，以確定他們(men) 應采取的保護社區建築的措施程度。

選擇一個(ge) 曆史地標 - 不是開普哈特拉斯燈塔 - 位於(yu) 經曆極端天氣事件的地點。應用你的保險和保存模型來評估這個(ge) 地標的價(jia) 值。根據你從(cong) 保險和保存模型的結果中獲得的洞察，為(wei) 社區推薦一個(ge) 計劃、時間表和成本提案的一頁信函，以確保他們(men) 珍視的地標的未來。

你的PDF解決(jue) 方案不得超過總共25頁，應包括：

一頁摘要表，清楚描述你解決問題的方法和你的分析中最重要的結論。
目錄。
你的完整解決方案。
一頁社區信函。
參考文獻列表。
AI使用報告（如果使用）

注意：對於(yu) 完整的MCM提交沒有具體(ti) 要求的最小頁數。你可以使用最多25頁來展示你的解決(jue) 方案工作和任何你想包含的額外信息（例如：繪圖、圖表、計算、表格）。接受部分解決(jue) 方案。我們(men) 允許謹慎使用AI，如ChatGPT，盡管不必須通過AI創建解決(jue) 方案。如果你選擇使用生成式AI，你必須遵循COMAP的AI使用政策。這將導致你必須在PDF解決(jue) 方案文件的末尾添加一個(ge) 額外的AI使用報告，且不計入你的解決(jue) 方案的總頁數25頁限製內(nei) 。

參考資料

[1] Boston Consulting Group. (2023, December 4). An Insurance Risk Framework for Climate Adaptation. Retrieved at: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/an-insurance-risk-framework-for-climate-adaptation

[2] Munich RE. (2022, January 10). Hurricanes, cold waves, tornadoes: Weather disasters in USA dominate natural disaster losses in 2021"). Retrieved at: https://www.munichre.com/en/company/media-relations/media-information-and-corporate-news/media-information/2022/natural-disaster-losses-2021.html

[3] Union of Concerned Scientists. (2016, July 19). Saving an Icon: Moving the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse Away from the Shifting Shoreline. Retrieved at: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/moving-cape-hatteras-lighthouse-away-shifting-shoreline

術語表

保險保護缺口：自然災害引起的經濟損失與(yu) 這些損失被覆蓋的金額之間的差異。

承保：接受責任，從(cong) 而保證在損失或損害的情況下支付。

Problem E: Sustainability of Property Insurance

Extreme-weather events are becoming a crisis for property owners and insurers. The world has endured “more than $1 trillion in damages from more than 1,000 extreme-weather events in recent years.”[1] The insurance industry saw claims for natural disasters in 2022 increase by “115% compared to the 30-year average.”[1] Conditions are expected to get worse as losses from severe weather-related events are likely to increase due to floods, hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, and wildfires. Premiums for insurance coverage are rising quickly, with climate change fueling projected increases of 30-60% by 2040.[1]

Property insurance is not only getting more expensive, but also harder to find, as insurance companies change how and where they are willing tounderwritepolicies. The weather-related occurrences propelling the cost of property insurance premiums look different depending on where you are in the world. Additionally, theinsurance protection gapaverages 57% worldwide and is increasing.[2] This highlights the industry’s dilemma - the emerging crisis in profitability for the insurers and in affordability for the property owners.

COMAP’s Insurance of Catastrophes Modelers (ICM) are interested in the sustainability of the property insurance industry. As climate change increases the likelihood of more severe weather and natural disasters, ICM wants to determine how best to posture property insurance now such that there is resilience in the system to cover the cost of future claims while also ensuring long-term health of insurance companies. If insurance companies are unwilling to underwrite policies in too many cases, they will go out of business due to too few customers. Conversely, if they underwrite policies that are too risky, they may pay too many claims. Under what conditions should insurance companies underwrite policies? When should they choose to take the risk? Is there anything a property owner could do to influence this decision? Develop a model for insurance companies to determine if they should underwrite policies in an area that has a rising number of extreme weather events. Demonstrate your model using two areas on different continents that experience extreme weather events.

As we look to the future, communities and property developers need to be asking themselves how and where to build and grow. As the insurance landscape changes, future real-estate decisions must be made to ensure properties are more resilient and built deliberately, including the viability to offer appropriate services to growing communities and populations. How can your insurance model be adapted to assess where, how, and whether to build on certain sites?

There may be communities where your insurance model recommends against underwriting current or future property insurance policies. This may result in community leaders facing tough decisions about properties with cultural or community significance. For example, the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse was moved on the Outer Banks of North Carolina to protect this historic light house along with the local tourism industry centered around it.[3] As a community leader, how could you identify buildings in a community that should be preserved and protected due to their cultural, historical, economic, or community significance? Develop a preservation model for community leaders to use to determine the extent of measures they should take to preserve buildings in their community.

Select a historic landmark – not Cape Hatteras Lighthouse – that is in a location that experiences extreme weather events. Apply your insurance and your preservation models to assess the value of this landmark. Compose a one-page letter to the community recommending a plan, timeline, and cost proposal for the future of their treasured landmark considering the insight you have gained from the results of your insurance and preservation models.

Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:

One-page summary sheet that clearly describes your approach to the problem and your most important conclusions from your analysis in the context of the problem.
Table of Contents.
Your complete solution.
One-page community letter.
References list.
AI Use Report (if used)

Note: There is no specific required minimum page length for a complete MCM submission. You may use up to 25 total pages for all your solution work and any additional information you want to include (for example: drawings, diagrams, calculations, tables). Partial solutions are accepted. We permit the careful use of AI such as ChatGPT, although it is not necessary to create a solution to this problem. If you choose to utilize a generative AI, you must follow the COMAP AI use policy. This will result in an additional AI use report that you must add to the end of your PDF solution file and does not count toward the 25 total page limit for your solution.

References

Glossary

Insurance Protection Gap: the difference in protection coverage between economic losses brought about by natural disasters and the amount of those losses that are covered.

Underwrite: accept liability for, thereby guaranteeing payment in the case of loss or damage.

【競賽報名/項目谘詢+微信：mollywei007】