中文賽題：減少非法野生動物貿易

非法野生動物貿易對我們(men) 的環境產(chan) 生負麵影響，威脅全球生物多樣性。據估計，每年的非法野生動物貿易涉及高達265億(yi) 美元，被認為(wei) 是全球所有非法貿易中的第四大。[1] 你需要開發一個(ge) 以數據為(wei) 驅動的5年項目，旨在顯著減少非法野生動物貿易。你的目標是說服一個(ge) 客戶執行你的項目。為(wei) 此，你必須選擇一個(ge) 客戶和一個(ge) 適合該客戶的項目。

你的工作應探討以下子問題：

• 你的客戶是誰？這個(ge) 客戶實際上能做什麽(me) ？（換句話說，你的客戶應該具有執行你提議的項目所需的權力、資源和興(xing) 趣。）

• 解釋你開發的項目為(wei) 什麽(me) 適合這個(ge) 客戶。什麽(me) 研究，來自發表的文獻和你自己的分析，支持你提議的項目的選擇？使用數據驅動的分析，你將如何說服你的客戶這是他們(men) 應該承擔的項目？

• 你的客戶需要什麽(me) 額外的權力和資源來執行這個(ge) 項目？（記住使用假設，但也盡可能將你的工作基於(yu) 現實。）

• 如果項目執行了會(hui) 發生什麽(me) ？換句話說，對非法野生動物貿易的可測量影響是什麽(me) ？你進行了哪些分析來確定這一點？

• 項目達到預期目標的可能性有多大？此外，基於(yu) 情境化的敏感性分析，是否存在可能不成比例地幫助或損害項目達到其目標的條件或事件？

雖然你可以將你的方法限製在非法野生動物貿易上，但你也可以將非法野生動物貿易視為(wei) 更大複雜係統的一部分。具體(ti) 來說，你可以考慮其他領域的全球努力，例如，努力遏製其他形式的販運或努力減少氣候變化與(yu) 遏製非法野生動物貿易的努力，可能是一個(ge) 複雜係統的一部分。這可能為(wei) 這個(ge) 領域的意外行動者創造協同的機會(hui) 。

如果你選擇在解決(jue) 方案中利用複雜性框架，請通過討論這種建模決(jue) 策的利弊來證明你的選擇。

此外，你的團隊必須提交一份關(guan) 鍵點的1頁備忘錄給你的客戶，突出你的5年項目提案以及為(wei) 什麽(me) 這個(ge) 項目適合他們(men) 作為(wei) 客戶（例如，資源獲取、他們(men) 的任務範圍、與(yu) 他們(men) 的使命聲明相符等）。

評委將特別尋找在選擇客戶以及選擇和證明適當建模過程中的創意。他們(men) 還將尋找既（1）建立客戶與(yu) 擬議項目之間的強聯係，又（2）在數據分析與(yu) 擬議項目設計之間建立清晰直接聯係的闡述。

你的PDF解決(jue) 方案不得超過總共25頁，應包括：

• 一份清楚描述你解決問題的方法和你從分析中得出的最重要結論的一頁摘要。
• 目錄。
• 你的完整解決方案。
• 給你的客戶的一頁備忘錄。
• 參考文獻列表。
• AI使用報告（如果使用）

注意：對於(yu) 完整的MCM提交沒有具體(ti) 要求的最小頁數。你可以使用最多25頁來展示你的解決(jue) 方案工作和任何你想包含的額外信息（例如：繪圖、圖表、計算、表格）。接受部分解決(jue) 方案。我們(men) 允許謹慎使用AI，如ChatGPT，盡管不必須通過AI創建解決(jue) 方案。如果你選擇使用生成式AI，你必須遵循COMAP的AI使用政策。這將導致你必須在PDF解決(jue) 方案文件的末尾添加一個(ge) 額外的AI使用報告，且不計入你的解決(jue) 方案的總頁數25頁限製內(nei) 。

參考資料

[1] Wildlife Conservancy Society. (2021). Why Should we Care about Wildlife Trafficking? Retrieved from https://wildlifetrade.wcs.org/Wildlife-Trade/Why-should-we-care.aspx

術語表

客戶：將實施擬議項目的行動者。他們(men) 可能是官方行動者（政府或準政府）或非官方行動者（非政府組織）。

非法野生動物貿易：走私、偷獵以及捕捉或收集瀕危物種、受保護野生動物或這些物種的衍生品/產(chan) 品。

Problem F: Reducing Illegal Wildlife Trade

Illegal wildlife trade negatively impacts our environment and threatens global biodiversity. It is estimated to involve up to 26.5 billion US dollars per year and is considered to be the fourth largest of all global illegal trades.[1] You are to develop a data-driven 5-year project designed to make a notable reduction in illegal wildlife trade. Your goal is to convince a client to carry out your project. To do this, you must select both a client and an appropriate project for that client.

Your work should explore the following sub-questions:

• Who is your client? What can that client realistically do? (In other words, your client should have the powers, resources, and interest needed to enact the project you propose.)

• Explain why the project you developed is suitable for this client. What research, from published literature and from your own analyses, supports the selection of your proposed project? Using a data-driven analysis, how will you convince your client that this is a project they should undertake?

• What additional powers and resources will your client need to carry out the project? (Remember to use assumptions, but also ground your work in reality as much as you are able.)

• If the project is carried out what will happen? In other words, what will the measurable impact on illegal wildlife trade be? What analysis did you do to determine this?

• How likely is the project to reach the expected goal? Also, based on a contextualized sensitivity analysis, are there conditions or events that may disproportionately aid or harm the project's ability to reach its goal?

While you could limit your approach to illegal wildlife trade, you may also consider illegal wildlife trade as part of a larger complex system. Specifically, you could consider how other global efforts in other domains, e.g., efforts to curtail other forms of trafficking or efforts to reduce climate change coupled with efforts to curtail illegal wildlife trade, may be part of a complex system. This may create synergistic opportunities for unexpected actors in this domain.

If you choose to leverage a complexity framework in your solution, be sure to justify your choice by discussing the benefits and drawbacks of this modeling decision.

Additionally, your team must submit a 1-page memo with key points for your client, highlighting your 5-year project proposal and why the project is right for them as a client (e.g., access to resources, part of their mandate, aligns with their mission statement, etc.).

The judges will specifically be looking for creativity in the selection of the client and in the selection and justification of appropriate modeling processes used throughout the analysis. They will also be looking for exposition that both (1) establishes strong connections between the client and the proposed project and (2) draws clear and direct ties between the data analysis and the design of the proposed project.

Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:

• One-page summary sheet that clearly describes your approach to the problem and your most important conclusions from your analysis in the context of the problem.
• Table of Contents.
• Your complete solution.
• One-page memo to your client.
• References list.
• AI Use Report (if used)

Note: There is no specific required minimum page length for a complete MCM submission. You may use up to 25 total pages for all your solution work and any additional information you want to include (for example: drawings, diagrams, calculations, tables). Partial solutions are accepted. We permit the careful use of AI such as ChatGPT, although it is not necessary to create a solution to this problem. If you choose to utilize a generative AI, you must follow the COMAP AI use policy. This will result in an additional AI use report that you must add to the end of your PDF solution file and does not count toward the 25 total page limit for your solution.

References

[1] Wildlife Conservancy Society. (2021). Why Should we Care about Wildlife Trafficking? Retrieved from https://wildlifetrade.wcs.org/Wildlife-Trade/Why-should-we-care.aspx

Glossary

Client: The actor who will be implementing the proposed project. They may be official actors (governmental or quasi-governmental) or unofficial actors (Non-Governmental Organizations).

Illegal Wildlife Trade: smuggling, poaching, and capture or collection of endangered species, protected wildlife, or the derivatives/products of these species.